Following last week’s news that City jobs and bonuses in London are in free-fall, Alan Johnson, the Wall Street pay consultant who works with numerous Wall Street banks has produced his first set of bonus predictions for 2012. Given his exposure to actual banks, you’d think Johnson knows what he’s talking about. This is good, because he thinks bonuses will increase in 2012.
Johnson thinks FICC professionals will be get the biggest increases. In some areas (ECM) he acknowledges the potential for bonuses to fall. But the resting stance is one of optimism and hopefulness, contrary to the CEBR which last week foresaw forthcoming bonus annihilation.
Bear in mind that: the CEBR’s forecast is London-focused and might be more accurate for the City; Johnson says his own projections are, “mindful of European turmoil, but do not reflect a significant worsening of the current environment,” which may be wishful thinking, and that Johnson started 2011 feeling quite good about things and then conceded that he’d been too optimistic on bonus sizes as the year progressed: